2024 will be the third presidential run for Donald Trump. Following his victory in 2016, he ran and lost re-election in 2020. The loss did not reduce his control over the Republican Party. While there was a theoretically competitive field of candidates for the Republican Primary, Trump soared above all the other contenders with a lead in the polls of 20-40 points for most of the contest. As such, he easily became the Republican nominee for president for a third time, hoping to become the second President ever to win non-consecutive terms, following Grover Cleveland.

However, another defeat for Trump would lead to more than just a Harris presidency. It would also lead to a renewed discussion about the future of the Republican Party. If Donald Trump were to lose again, it would be two elections lost in a row. What would be his future then? What would be the future of the party?

If Donald Trump were to lose in 2024, it would not be completely unprecedented for him to run again in 2028. William Jennings Byran had three unsuccessful bids for the presidency, running in 1896, 1900, and 1908. A Trump candidacy in 2028 would be just as long since his first candidacy as it was for Byran-twelve years. However, if not unprecedented, it is unlikely. Donald Trump himself has ruled out running in 2028 if he loses again. Taking him at his word, then, opens discussion to what a post-Trump GOP would look like.

What is the future of a Republican Party without Donald Trump? Since 2016, the party has grown more and more loyal to him. His daughter-in law, Lara Trump, is the Co-Chair of the Republican National Convention, and Mike Johnson has leaned closer and closer to Trump during this election. Meanwhile, many anti-Trump voices have been rooted out of the party. Out of the ten Republican Representatives who voted to impeach Donald Trump following January 6th, only two (David Valadao and Dan Newhouse) still serve.

Other prominent Anti-Trump Republicans are now out of office, such as Nikki Haley, Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. Although they may try to stay relevant in the party, doing so without an office will be difficult. Straying against Trump has also done no favors for their political reputation. Following Cheney’s removal from the Republican Party, 80% of Republican respondents in one poll approved the decision. 

The neoconservatives in the line of Kinzinger and Cheney seem unlikely to make a comeback, particularly as the Republican base remains loyal to Donald Trump and his ideology. According to a Statista study, 87% of Republicans remain ‘Very Favorable’ or ‘Somewhat Favorable’ of Donald Trump. Trumpism, therefore, shows no signs of declining, even if Trump’s political career ends.

Following this strain, it seems that the logical successor to Donald Trump would be one to carry on in his footsteps and inherit the MAGA mantle, rather than being someone opposed to it. Several familiar faces from 2024, such as Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, portrayed themselves as alternate MAGA candidates. With the genuine MAGA candidate no longer in the running, their chances look more likely. 

JD Vance could also make a run for the position. However, he would be entering the 2028 position far weaker in this scenario than from a 2024 victory. In that scenario, he would be running in 2028 as the sitting Vice President. With a Trump defeat, however, he is merely another failed candidate.

Even if Donald Trump does not run, one must also consider his position as a future kingmaker. His endorsements have been known to carry heavy weight and help candidates win. Even if he himself does not run, his endorsement could make one candidate the official heir to a throne still popular amongst the Republican base.

Whether he does make endorsements or not, however, the 2028 primary will take place in his shadow. Candidates will have to choose to step into his shadow or out of it, to carry on his torch or discard it. Four years after a second Trump defeat, then, the name ‘Trump’ will undoubtedly remain in headlines and speeches, eight years after leaving office.