As the U.S. is set to elect its next president on November 5, 2024, a recurring theme throughout the campaign was American foreign policy. However, when carefully examining the two candidate’s positions, they aren’t as different as portrayed. 

Trump and Harris on Russia/Ukraine

In May 2023, during a CNN town hall, Trump claimed that he could end the Ukraine War “within a day.” He has also repeatedly claimed that if he was president, Russia would have never invaded Ukraine. A few weeks ago, Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of starting the war and insisted that if elected, the aid to Ukraine would stop. 

On the other hand, Harris said that the US would stand with Ukraine and our (America’s) NATO allies, and if elected, she would largely continue Biden’s policies. Based on these statements, Trump seems to be “pro-Russia,” while Harris is “pro-Ukraine.” However, the reality is much more complex. 

While Trump has repeatedly expressed admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin, his administration was very hawkish toward Russia. In 2017, Trump signed the CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions) bill into law. In December 2017 and October 2019, provided weapons to the Ukrainians, left the INF Treaty, sanctioned Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and many other related policies. 

Putin himself admitted that under Trump, there were “so many restrictions and sanctions against Russia like no other president has introduced before him.” 

Thus, if Trump gets elected, it won’t be as simple to end the Ukraine War within a day. However, even if Harris gets elected, continuing the status quo policy of giving Ukraine aid with no clear objective is unsustainable for the Americans and frankly the Europeans. 

Trump and Harris on the Indo-Pacific

During his term as president and on the campaign trail, Trump has accused China of taking advantage of America economically, labelling it as a currency manipulator, and imposed tariffs. 

Likewise, Kamala shares these positions on China, viewing it as America’s primary geopolitical rival. During the DNC, Harris said that she will make sure for “America, not China, wins the competition for the twenty-first century.” In fact, China is one of the few issues that republicans and democrats agree on these days. Thus, if Harris gets elected, she is likely to continue Biden’s policy of keeping the China tariffs and imposing more on critical industries, such as semiconductors.

The key difference between a Trump administration and the Harris administration is how to approach the other Indo-Pacific countries. When president, Trump also imposed tariffs on Japan, India, and other key American allies and partners, deeming these countries to also be taking advantage of America economically. Thus, if Trump gets elected, it is likely that in addition to China, tariffs against South Korea, Japan, India, and other countries would get passed. 

By contrast, a Harris administration would likely continue Biden’s policy of working the Indians, Japanese, South Koreans, and other key regional powers to form a “coalition” against China, through multilateral initiatives like the QUAD and AUKUS. 

Trump and Harris on the Middle East

Another region that was discussed was the Middle East, and how each would handle issues like Israel/Palestine, Iran, and other key topics. 

When looking at the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, in some respects, a Harris administration would be more critical of Israel’s conduct of its war in Gaza, insist on a ceasefire and a two state-solution. By contrast, a Trump administration would likely issue minimal to no criticism of Israel’s actions and has portrayed Joe Biden and Harris as “hating Israel.”

However, it is also crucial to note that given Trump’s unpredictability, it is very hard to say that Trump will be the pro-Israel president that Benjamin Netanyahu seeks. For example, in April 2024, while Trump said that Israel needs to “finish the job” he also said that they are losing the PR campaign. Likewise, a few days ago, Trump’s VP candidate JD Vance said that it isn’t in America’s interest to go to war with Iran, in reference to escalating tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran. 

Regarding Iran, it is highly likely that there will not be a significant difference if Trump or Harris gets elected. Even if Harris gets elected, the US cannot easily rejoin the Iran deal, a deal that Harris has herself supported. This is because relations between the Iranians and Americans have deteriorated so much, largely due to Iranian support to the Russians in the Ukraine War. Likewise, if Trump gets elected, there is an expectation that he would impose more sanctions on Iran. 

However, regardless of who gets elected, both will be reluctant to take decision that drags the U.S into another major conflict in the Middle East, as Trump and Harris recognize the political suicide it could have for their own electoral chances. 

At the end of the day, regardless of who gets elected, it is important to keep in mind that the president doesn’t have the sole authority. There is a complex bureaucracy at play that involves the State Department, the Defense Department, Congress, and various other entities, making any unilateral effort by the president to drastically change American foreign policy extremely challenging.