In a recent announcement, Donald Trump announced plans for a new series of global tariffs. Alongside a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports comes a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico or Canada. The reasons cited were large numbers of illegal immigrants and fentanyl allegedly crossing the border from both countries.

Together, those three countries account for about forty percent of America’s total imports. Cars, delivery trucks, and petroleum are Canada’s biggest exports to the United States, trade with whom amounts to three-quarters of Canada’s total exports. Mexico, meanwhile, overtook China in 2023 as the biggest exporter to the United States. Sixty percent of its trade is with the United States. Mexico is a major supplier of cars, with sixteen percent of all American automobiles coming from Mexico, as well as large numbers of electronics, medical equipment, and other goods. The currencies of Mexico and Canada both dropped in value following the announcement, with leaders from both countries quick to react.

The Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, announced swiftly that he had had a ‘good call’ with President Trump and pledged to meet with provincial leaders to discuss American-Canadian relations going forward. The leader of the opposition, Pierre Poileivre, called Trump’s tariff an ‘unjustified threat.’ When asked if he would retaliate against these tariffs if he were to be Prime Minister, he responded, “If necessary.”

Claudia Sheinbaum, the recently elected President of Mexico, warned that these tariffs could escalate the trade war, leading to rising tariffs that would “put at risk common businesses.” While she confirmed that Mexico had made an effort to decrease the number of migrants, she put the blame of drugs on the American side, attributing it to the “…problem of public health and consumption in your country’s society.” She also said that instead of placing tariffs, the United States should spend more money regionally to address the “…underlying causes of migration.”

Mexico is no stranger to American tariffs. In 2019, Trump announced a 5% tariff on the country to try and force it to clamp down on immigration. The tariffs were abandoned after individuals from both countries were able to negotiate a new agreement on immigration enforcement. However, Sheinbaum is known to be further to the left than her predecessor, and her resistance to Trump’s threats might hint at a more complex negotiation this time around.

The tariffs come at a key moment in North American relations. In 2026, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is set for re-negotiation. The USMCA was the deal Trump negotiated in his first term to replace its predecessor, NAFTA. Its guidelines restrict unauthorized tariffs against member countries.

Trump’s insistence on using tariffs regardless may hint towards his goals for the upcoming renegotiations, for which domestic consultations are already beginning.